Volume 2, issue #16 - 05-06-1997

May 19, 1997 China's gross domestic product (GDP) should account for nearly 20 % of the world's total GDP by 2020, surpassing the US and Japan, when measured using currency values based on purchasing power parity. The prediction is the result of a two-year study conducted by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The study concluded the US is expected to contribute 11% and Japan 5% in 2020. Average GDP growth for non-member countries such as China and India is projected at 6.3% per annum from 1995 to 2020, compared with 2.8% for the 29 member countries over the same term, the report said. As a result, the combined GDP of non-member countries will make up more than 60 % of world GDP, compared with about 40 % in 1995, the report said.
The combined GDP of 5 non-member countries -- China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia -- is expected to account for about 37 % of the world's total in 2020.
The projections were made on the assumption that both member and non-member countries will continue to deregulate their economies and to liberalise trade and capital markets.
Because the GDP estimates resulting from the study are based on currency values derived by measuring purchasing power, they differ from standard GDP projections. The study results will be submitted to the OECD ministerial meeting held Paris in late May.